[PwC] Nigeria Economic Outlook: January 2026
Nigeria enters 2026 with improved macroeconomic stability as PwC outlines seven trends shaping business outcomes.
By PwC
PwC Nigeria has released its Economic Outlook 2026, examining how recent gains in macroeconomic stability are reshaping the operating environment for businesses, investors, and markets as Nigeria moves into 2026.
The report finds that Nigeria recorded improvements in macroeconomic stability in 2025 following key monetary and foreign-exchange reforms, with inflation easing, exchange-rate conditions stabilising, and external reserves strengthening. PwC’s Economic Outlook 2026 highlights how this stability is influencing strategic business choices in 2026, particularly around investment, cost and funding decisions, and regulatory, tax, and digital priorities.
“PwC Nigeria’s Economic Outlook 2026 provides forward-looking analysis of key macroeconomic indicators and what they signal for the economy and for business leaders. Nigeria has achieved improved macroeconomic stability over the past year. The focus now is how that stability is translated into sustainable economic growth, and how businesses position for 2026. For companies, this stability provides a more predictable operating environment for planning, investment, and growth decisions,” said Sam Abu, Country Senior Partner, PwC Nigeria
The Economic Outlook 2026 identifies seven key issues shaping Nigeria’s economic performance in the year ahead, spanning global and domestic forces. These include monetary policy effectiveness, fiscal sustainability and reform execution, global economic and geopolitical dynamics, domestic security and social pressures, uneven sectoral growth, consumer affordability constraints, and the expanding role of the digital economy and artificial intelligence.
“The seven themes in the Outlook show how global and domestic forces will shape economic performance in 2026. Globally, growth is projected at around 3.1%, while merchandise trade growth slows to about 0.5%, keeping oil prices, capital flows, and access to foreign inflows as key channels influencing Nigeria’s growth and FX liquidity. Domestically, improved monetary effectiveness has reduced volatility and clarified pricing, cost, and funding signals, even as fiscal pressures, security challenges, and weak household purchasing power continue to shape sector outcomes. Growth is more likely to remain concentrated in services and selected capital-intensive sectors, placing a premium on disciplined capital allocation and sector selection,” said Olusegun Zaccheaus, partner and chief economist, PwC Nigeria.
Looking ahead, the Outlook projects real GDP growth of about 4.3% in 2026, with inflation moderating gradually and the naira remaining broadly stable. Fiscal constraints persist, reinforcing the importance of capital efficiency and balance-sheet discipline.
Against this backdrop, PwC Nigeria highlights practical imperatives for business leaders in 2026: making selective investment bets in attractive sectors and regions, scenario-planning for macroeconomic and geopolitical shocks, adapting business models and cost structures for resilience, accelerating digital transformation and responsible AI adoption, and strengthening regulatory and tax compliance as reforms move from design to execution.