PwC South Africa Economic Outlook | Fuel price declines coming to an end in 2024Q1
Fuel price forecasts: Recent declines coming to an end in 2024Q1.
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By PwC
Fuel price forecasts: Recent declines coming to an end in 2024Q1.
We’re pleased to share our eleventh South Africa Economic Outlook report for 2023.
Following a recent decline in oil prices and strengthening in the rand exchange rate, PwC’s modelling indicates that local fuel prices could be lower in 2024Q1 compared to the current quarter. The petrol price is expected to decline from an average of R24.13/litre in 2023Q4 to a forecast mean of R23.02/litre in 2024Q1, while diesel could ease from R23.72/litre to R21.21/litre.
However, based on current assumptions, both petrol and diesel prices are expected to again slowly increase (on average) during the remaining quarters of 2024 and into 2025. With fuel prices rising over the medium to long term, and given significant challenges in finalising reforms to the country’s fuel pricing methodology, it is incumbent on South African businesses to implement actionable strategies to reduce their fleet fuel consumption.
In this report, we explore seven options that could have a positive impact on fleet fuel consumption and emissions, namely:
– Load planning and optimisation;
– Route optimisation;
– Scheduling of logistics;
– Cold chain management;
– Driver monitoring and training; and
– Electrified powertrains; and
– Partnerships with fuel suppliers.
Key content in this report includes:
– Energy consumption trends: Transport represents 14.4% of the consumer spending basket.
– Petrol and diesel price forecasts: Recent declines should bottom out in 2024Q1, followed by a slow upward trend thereafter.
– Pricing formula review: the SARB identifies seven areas of possible reform to lower fuel prices.
– Reducing fleet fuel consumption: Seven actionable strategies to improve logistics planning and transport decisions.
– How PwC assists our clients to respond to the evolving transport and logistics environment.
Download the publication here